Seattle Real Estate

Real-estate outlook: Is the glass half-full, half-empty or broken?

Anyone looking for a definitive answer to the question about the outlook for the 2009 real-estate market need look no further than Inman News to see why one isn't in the offing.

In the afternoon edition of today's Inman "Daily Headlines," the first two items are "Pessimism about 2009 recovery," which outlines and refers readers to an Inman survey of expectations for the 2009 market, and "Get ready for real-estate rebound," which outlines the reasons the market could improve next year.

Take a read of both. Let me know which side you come down on -- that of survey respondents who say a rebound won't happen before 2010 or that of columnist Bernice Ross, who says next year will be better than anyone thinks. (I'm crossing my fingers that Ross is right, but I'm afraid those fingers will cramp up before I can uncross them and we're in the clear.)

Posted: Mon, 01 Dec 2008 14:41:09 -0800

Lower mortgage rates means "it's a great time to buy," loan officer says

I got an e-mail recently from Dave Erickson, past president of the Washington Association of Mortgage Brokers, who wants prospective homebuyers to know that there's mortgage money out there and rates have been going in the right direction for borrowers. Here's his e-mail:

Did you know? Rates have fallen around 1% for a 30 year rate over the last couple weeks.

If you do the math, a 1% drop, from 6.375% to 5.375%, on a 300,000 mortgage reduces the payment by $191.70. At 5.375%, $191.70 buys an extra $34,233.90 in house. Compelling, isn’t it? Add to that the 10-20% price drops which have already occurred and it’s really compelling. It is a great time to buy.

Cindy, also I’d like to try to counter the common perception that it is hard to get a mortgage these days. It simply isn’t true. If you have income that can be verified, okay credit, and aren’t buying over your head, there is plenty of money readily available to you. I recently have gotten multiple approvals for debt ratios over 50% for first time buyers.

Let’s not dissuade those first timers who are on the border of affording a home of their own. When rates go up (they certainly will) and when values start back up (they always have and will again), these people may be out of luck.

So, what I'd like to know is this: Have you gotten a loan recently? How long did it take?

Posted: Mon, 01 Dec 2008 13:39:21 -0800

Real-estate facts and figures: What a week

This is one of those weeks when home-sales reports make my head spin around. Three reports came out Monday; one, yesterday; and one, today. That I know of. There are probably more I don't know about. I'm sure some of you can keep them straight, but for the rest of you -- and mostly me -- I'll recap and give you a little insight about each report.

Released Monday:

-- National Association of Realtors reported existing-home sales. This is one of those reports that means little to our market. The NAR doesn't break out data for our area because the Northwest Multiple Listing Service, which tracks our sales, isn't affiliated with the national organization. And our MLS, which releases its data for each month early the following month, doesn't separate sales of new and existing homes. In other words, this report tell us nothing about the Seattle-area market. We combined the AP story about this report with one about the next report. See the AP story here.

-- The Associated Press-Re/Max Monthly Housing Report addressed October home sales. I actually never see this report, just the Associated Press stories about it. (If you know where to find it, please let me know because I'd love to get my hands on it.) This report covers sales of new and existing homes nationwide and by region. It bothers me because the data for our region, the West, is heavily skewed by ridiculously high foreclosure rates and plummeting prices in California, Nevada and Arizona. In other words, although we run the AP coverage of the report (see Tuesday's here), I get neither excited nor hot and bothered about it. When I see a Seattle area or even Washington state breakdown, I'll jump up and down.

-- Real Trends reported its October home-sales numbers (new and resales). This report also looked at the nation as a whole and at several regions. Nothing more detailed (I called to ask), so -- again -- not particularly helpful in individual markets. It reported changes in average, not median, prices, which means that unless extreme highs and lows are thrown out, the price data can be easily skewed. This one we didn't write about, and no wire services we use covered it, either. Here are the first two paragraphs of the Real Trends news release:

Home sales decreased 4.8 percent nationwide in October 2008 over October 2007 in what real-estate information firm Real Trends calls a "sloppy bottom" -- results that vary significantly from one month to the next.

The strongest region was the West where home sales increased 33.3 percent from October 2007. The hardest-hit regions were the Northeast, which had held up better throughout the downturn that started in July 2005, where unit sales decreased 16.8 percent, and the South, which saw unit sales decrease by 17.1 percent from the same month a year ago.

Released Tuesday:

-- The biggie, which people in the industry seem to either love or hate (I'm not a big fan), was the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 10- and 20-city home-price indexes. The Seattle metro area is in the 20-city index, so we watch that one. It looks at the changes in price over time of the same homes, factoring out significant changes that would skew the price change. Elizabeth Rhodes wrote a story about this report.

Released today:

-- The U.S. Commerce Department released its report on new-home sales for October.

Stay tuned. Next week, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service releases it's November home-sales data. And while that data leaves out any sale not reported to the MLS, it's the best, most complete look we have for our market on a monthly basis.

Posted: Wed, 26 Nov 2008 19:00:00 -0800

Happy holidays: Fannie, Freddie postpone foreclosures until next year

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are suspending foreclosures for the holiday season -- Nov. 26 through Jan. 9 -- while lenders ready a new loan-modification program aimed at preventing reducing the number of foreclosures by allowing homeowners to refinance into loans with more favorable terms.

The two government-sponsored enterprises own or guarantee $5.2 trillion of the $12 trillion U.S. home mortgage market, Bloomberg News says. Read the full story here.

Posted: Thu, 20 Nov 2008 14:18:47 -0800

Comptroller: Community Reinvestment Act didn't cause credit crunch

The Comptroller of the Currency (I want a cool title like that) sent out this press release. Seems that the man himself, John Dugan, defended the 31-year-old Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) yesterday in a speech to the Enterprise Annual Network Conference in Baltimore.

Dugan was the latest to weigh in on the debate about whether this legislation caused the subprime mortgage crisis, the catalyst for our current economic woes. The CRA was passed in 1977 to encourage banks to lend in low- and moderate-income areas. It specifically says "consistent with safe and sound operation." I take that to mean: "Don't lend to those who can't pay you back" and "Don't make special exceptions for those with questionable credit and limited ability to repay a loan."

But hey, what do I know?

Continue reading...

Posted: Thu, 20 Nov 2008 14:00:18 -0800

New Windermere Web site a sight for sore eyes

Thank God. Windermere Real Estate finally upgraded its Web site, and I, for one, am grateful.

The upgrade makes it easy to "cruise" a neighborhood to check out its listings. You can zoom in to check out listing in a particular area you might like to call home. After you plug in search criteria, you get a page that has a map with lots of houses on it. Roll your cursor over a house to see a thumbprint photo and the address, then go to the listings on the right side to read details, see more photos or watch a slide show.

I peruse lots of real-estate Web sites, and I like this one.

Posted: Wed, 19 Nov 2008 17:27:32 -0800

Real-estate writer has stimulus idea

No, not this writer. I'm talking about columnist Jon Lansner, who writes about real estate at the Orange County Register.

He says the government should double the mortgage-interest deduction, which would give homeowners a $2 deduction for every $1 they pay in mortgage interest. Check it out here.

What's your idea to stimulate the housing market?

Posted: Tue, 18 Nov 2008 13:30:02 -0800

Movie choice highlights real-estate, economic worries

"Kung Fu Panda" was not available at my local video store, and I couldn't watch "Stick It" or "Over the Hedge" again, so I had to rent something else for a Saturday move night. The famiy-oriented choices were slim, and I settled for the only one I could find: "Kit Kittredge: An American Girl."

Sweet movie, really, but it scared the crap out of me. About a girl's life during The Great Depression, the movie is kid-friendly, based on the American Girl line of dolls and books -- and deals with topics that are very much adult-oriented: job loss, foreclosure, soup kitchens, homeless camps, "hobos" and the prejudice they faced.

Honestly, though, with the fear and loathing in the stock market, the housing market and the economy in general, I should've reconsidered. When Kit's friends' house was foreclosed on, I flinched. The family's possessions were carried out to the sidewalk and the foreclosure sign was pounded into the ground. I bit my lip watching it. I will be unemployed as of mid-December (I'm leaving voluntarily as part of a companywide staff reduction), and this innocent movie brought all my fears about unemployment, especially in a recession, and foreclosure to the forefront of mind.

Continue reading...

Posted: Mon, 17 Nov 2008 11:26:37 -0800

October real-estate foreclosures climb

Last month's foreclosure numbers from RealtyTrac rocketed into the stratosphere, more than tripling in King County from September and from the previous October. Definitely depressing news after September's positive numbers.

Specifically, 935 homes in King County were issued a "notice of trustee sale," which means auction dates were set for them. That number is 3 1/2 times what it was in September (260 notices) and nearly 3 1/3 times the number in October 2007 (282 sales set).

Including properties that received notices of default (when documents are filed with the county because homeowners have missed payments for at least three straight months) and those that have been returned to lenders, foreclosures have hit one in every 652 households in King County. In September, that ratio was 1 in 1,630.

Snohomish and Pierce counties' numbers were equally bad, based on percentage increases:

-- Snohomish County saw 459 auction-sale notices, triple what they were in September and nearly double the number from October 2007.

-- In Pierce County, auction-sale notices numbered 1,121, about 3 1/2 times the number in September and more than double the October 2007 number.

Kitsap County, on the other hand, fared better, with sale notices filed for 59 homes last month, up from 49 in September but down by half from the previous October, when 120 auction dates were set.

Nationwide, auction-sale notices rose 8 percent from September and 13 percent from October 2007. But that doesn't mean the Puget Sound area is much worse off than the U.S. as a whole.

As economist Joe Cortright said at last week's 2009 housing forecast breakfast, we were "late to the party, didn't get as drunk and won't be as hung over."

In other words, we have a long way to go to catch up, and we probably won't.

Posted: Thu, 13 Nov 2008 00:01:00 -0800

Luxury real estate is slower to sell, too

From elizabeth Rhodes, reporting from the National Association of Realtors conference in Orlando:

ORLANDO, Fla. -- You'd think that all those "Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous" kitchens and bathrooms would sell themselves, but no. Million-dollar homes are languishing on the market as long -- or longer -- than their more moderately priced kin.

So it's no wonder that one of the big topics at the National Association of Realtors convention in Orlando is how to sell big properties with big price tags. There have been a host of well-attended workshops aimed at giving Realtors the tools to move these properties.

The No. 1 rule, apparently, is Know Thy Buyer. From that comes how to reach them.

Continue reading...

Posted: Mon, 10 Nov 2008 15:10:15 -0800

Realtors to Obama: Help homeowners avoid foreclosure

From reporter Elizabeth Rhodes, in Orlando for the National Association of Realtors conference:

ORLANDO, Fla. -- Once inaugurated at the 44th president, Barack Obama will have his hands full dealing with the country's many issues and ills.

A new study, released today in Orlando at the National Association of Realtors annual convention, shows that helping troubled homeowners avoid foreclosure should be high on Obama's to-do list for his first 100 days.Commissioned by Move, the operator of the heavily searched Realtor.com site, the study focused on housing issues.

Half of the 1,004 Americans interviewed for the study said that avoiding foreclosure was the No. 1 housing issue, far higher than making mortgage credit available (22.7 percent) or helping first timers buy homes (16 percent).

"Consumers are looking for an event, like a new president, to ignite their confidence in the housing market," Move President Lorna Borenstein said. "While today's challenging housing market has affected many, findings from this newest survey tell us the American dream of homeownership is alive and stong."

About 5 percent said they plan to buy a home in the coming year, about three times the percentage that actually bought this year.

Still, there's no getting around the fact that consumers are depressed. Two thirds of those who said they wanted to buy also said they have held off doing so because of overall economic conditions, and 28 percent said they have either sold recently for less than they hoped to get for their home or know someone else in that boat.

Posted: Mon, 10 Nov 2008 14:12:28 -0800

Realtors roll out home-sales stats

From reporter Elizabeth Rhodes, at the National Association of Realtors conference in Orlando:

ORLANDO, Fla. -- The National Association of Realtors is big into collecting statistics. Here are some fresh ones it rolled out at its current convention in Orlando, based on a national survey of 133,000 buyers and sellers involved in home transactions between July 2007 and June 2008:

-- Six percent of buyers purchased a home in foreclosure, up from 1 percent in the previous annual survey. Thirty-eight percent considered buying a foreclosure but said they couldn't find the right house.

-- Ninety percent of buyers were eco-conscious and wanted their home to be be environmentally friendly. In particular, they wanted evergy-efficient heating, cooling, appliances and lighting in that order.

-- Commuting costs really got buyers' attention, with 41 percent sayng they were very important and 39 percent saying they were somewhat important.

-- Buyers hunted for homes a median 10 weeks and viewed 10 homes before buying.

-- Was it a good investment? Nearly 9 out of 10 said so, with almost half considering it a better bet than stocks. (This survey was done before the recent stock market turmoil. If buyers were asked now, it's probably a safe bet their answer would be different.)

-- The typical repeat buyer was 47, or 17 years older than the typical first-time buyer.

-- The typical repeat buyer earned $88,000 and bought a $236,000 home.

-- Among first-time buyers, the median income was $66,000. The home cost $165,000.

-- The median age of sellers was 47; their median income was $91,000.

-- Forty-two percent of sellers offered incentives, such as help with closing costs, to attract buyers.

-- The typical home sold for 96 percent of list price.

-- Three quarters of sellers were married couples. They had been in their home six years.

-- Fifty-two percent of sellers bought larger homes; 22 percent were downsizing. The rest, apparently, bought about the same size home, just in a different location.

Posted: Mon, 10 Nov 2008 13:57:10 -0800