Mortgage Loans

Housing Needs Job Creation. What Sort of Jobs Though?

Posted To: Voice of Housing

Mr. O’Reilly (December 01, 2009) claims that the “new” root cause of the housing crisis is the (lack of) “jobs, jobs, jobs.” So the solution to the crisis must be (the creation of) “jobs, jobs, jobs.” I agree. But the next question is this: What sort of jobs? Consider a proposal for two, complementary jobs programs. The first is called the “Litter Scattering Brigades.” Workers are paid to strew trash along the nation’s highways. The second jobs program is called the “Litter Gathering Brigades.” Workers are paid to collect the trash strewn on the nation’s highways. The workers of the Scattering Brigade have jobs, and thus can afford a home. The workers of the Gathering Brigade have jobs, and thus can afford a home...(read more)

Posted: Mon, 08 Feb 2010 22:03:34 GMT

Centralized Lock Desks Serve as a Gate Keeper. Source of Revenue

Posted To: The Garrett Watts Report

This was the half time scene in Miami last night at Super Bowl XLIV... I am sure many watchers were thinking: Why The Who? Maybe some of us in our 60s and 70s need to be “put out to pasture” or start “whittling wood” on the front porch. However, as a boomer, I was inspired to see these guys still rocking and rolling. I enjoyed the music and hope they keep playing. Peter Townsend will go down as one of most brilliant musical writers of all time. That’s enough about The Who and dating myself. Lets’ talk about secondary market and locking loans. One of the areas we review during our FOCIS-plus Studies is whether a company has a centralized lock process. Centralizing the lock function means all lock requests and confirmations are managed by a “gate keeper”...(read more)

Posted: Mon, 08 Feb 2010 20:54:00 GMT

MBS AFTERNOON: Narrow And Stable Heading Into The Close

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The market is duller than a Colts victory parade at the moment. We're dealing with a fairly standard issue "calm before the storm" that we often see on a data-limited Monday when the rest of the week contains the more significant events. The supportive trends we began to note in the last post have continued to foster a narrow range of prices with almost perfectly flat directional movement. In other words, the simple existence of a "narrow range" doesn't always mean prices aren't moving. We can see narrow ranges while still moving DIRECTIONALLY. For instance, even on a 16 tick rally, if the subsequent highs and lows are only a tick or two higher than their previous marks, the line on the chart would be fairly smooth yet still be very much higher at the end of...(read more)

Posted: Mon, 08 Feb 2010 20:32:00 GMT

MBS LUNCH: Well Off Friday's Highs, But Holding Ground

Posted To: MBS Commentary

As AQ pointed out this morning, today's slightly downward trend in MBS price began in the final hours of Friday's trading. Both MBS and Treasuries put in their best marks of the day just before 2pm, and have moved steadily downward ever since. You may notice, however, that both markets appear to be losing that negative steam near current levels. For Treasuries, that looks to be around 3.60 and for MBS, around 101-08. At the moment, the Fannie 4.5 is a tick higher than that at 101-09, but is still 5 ticks lower from Friday's closing prices. All that being said, the more important trends to watch pertain to the generally supportive range for MBS that emerged even before Friday's boomy rally. AQ pointed this out as well, and it remains pertinent at the moment. You can see on Thursday...(read more)

Posted: Mon, 08 Feb 2010 19:06:00 GMT

Short Term Direction of Mortgage Rates Dependent Upon Auctions and Stocks

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Who Dat!!!! Congratulations to New Orleans on a well played and exciting Super Bowl victory. Mortgage rate moved a few basis points lower on Friday following the Employment Situation Report . While we have seen scattered day over day streaks of improvements, mortgages rates have failed to fall lower than 4.75% in 2010. To remind readers, as mortgage-backed securities prices move higher in price lenders are able to pass along better rates. After what seemed like a steady flow of important economic data and market moving headline news last week, the data schedule slows down in the days ahead, but headline news is always a possibility. In terms of scheduled events, no economic reports are being released today or tomorrow. On Tuesday we have the first of three mortgage rate influential Treasury...(read more)

Posted: Mon, 08 Feb 2010 18:43:26 GMT

MBS MORNING: Testing the Staying Power of Friday's FTQ Rally

Posted To: MBS Commentary

DID I MENTION THUNDER SNOW ! By the look of the charts, it doesnt appear that we should be expecting any noticeable improvements in positive price momentum today. We are extending the downtrend that began midday Friday. The FN 4.0 is -0-08 at 98-08 yielding 4.169% and the FN 4.5 is -0-05 at 101-08 yielding 4.375%. The secondary market current coupon is 2bps higher on the day at 4.313%. The current coupon yield is 72.4 bps over the 10yr TSY note yield and 62.6 bps over the 10yr swap rate. MBS yields are moderately tighter vs. benchmark yields this morning. The 3.375 coupon bearing 10 year TSY note is -0-06 at 98-06 yielding 3.594% (+2.3 bps from 5pm marks on Friday). The 2s/10s curve is unchanged at the 280bp pivot. The dollar index is weaker vs. a basket of currencies....-0.37% at 80.145. The...(read more)

Posted: Mon, 08 Feb 2010 16:38:00 GMT

MBA Takes Loss on Headquarters; CRA Loans; HAMP Servicer Updates; Prepay Speeds; Updates: GMAC, FAMC

Posted To: Pipeline Press

I thought about taking today off from the commentary to celebrate, since yesterday I won all 4 quarters of my office's Super Bowl pool! And then I remembered that I was the only one in the pool, don't really have an office, and that the net effect of my $50 a square winnings was about the same as the US Government buying back their own securities. Oh well. Those dues that you pay to the Mortgage Bankers Association - where does the money go? Education, lobbying, etc., but some probably went into buying the MBAA its $90 million headquarters in downtown Washington which it sold last week for $41 million after 3 years. Ouch! CoStar Group, who is moving its headquarters from Maryland to DC, also received a $6 million property tax break - hats off to them. Not only did the MBAA's interest...(read more)

Posted: Mon, 08 Feb 2010 15:11:52 GMT

MBS OPEN: Sideways Start. Searching for Guidance

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Good Morning. Congrats to the Saints. Here is a recap of my weekend.... We had a blizzard...32 inches of THUNDER SNOW . The driveway was defeated with snowblowers. This is only the first half of the driveway by the way.... The CAPS came from behind to beat the pens. Ovie had a trick plus the game winning assist in OT. Thats 14 in a row for the C-A-P-S CAPS CAPS CAPS. Troy saw his shadow. AH! Six more weeks of football. The Saints won....then my milkaholic ex-gf Lindsay came over. Phew. I am zonked. What a weekend. Stocks sold off in a panicky fashion last week as sovereign debt concerns grew over Greece, Portugal, and Spain's ballooning budget deficit and rising borrowing costs. If a coordinated global recovery is to remain on course, one has to assume some sort of financial intervention...(read more)

Posted: Mon, 08 Feb 2010 13:56:00 GMT

The Week Ahead: Treasury Auctions, Retail Sales, The Fed's Exit, Consumer Sentiment

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The week ahead is a particularly slow one. The only major releases are the Trade Balance on Wednesday and Retail Sales report on Thursday. Plus, Friday will see February’s first measure of consumer confidence. With little fresh data to anticipate, the fear is that markets will continue on their downward path this week. Since January 19 the Dow has shed 5.6% while the S&P 500 has lost 6.9%. One hour before the opening bell, however, equity markets are looking stable. Dow futures are up 10 points to 10,012 and S&P 500 futures are up 3.08 points to 1,066. Meantime, WTI Crude oil is starting the week 15 cents higher at $71.34 per barrel and Spot Gold is up $1.90 to $1,068.20. The US dollar, by contrast, is lower against the majors after hitting the highest level since the summer of...(read more)

Posted: Mon, 08 Feb 2010 13:49:00 GMT

MBS CLOSE: On The Doorstep Of A Brave "Old" World

Posted To: MBS Commentary

When something is on a doorstep--any doorstep--there are only two places it can be going: either back inside the metaphorical house, or back to the world outside. Bonds, as represented not by our namesake MBS, but by the 10yr Treasury note, find themselves in just such a dualistic state this evening. They too, are on a doorstep, their location being most perfectly defined neither by the "outside" or the "inside." when we are talking about outside versus inside, it's in reference to the range in which the 10 year treasury was trading between August 21 and December 14, 2009, "the brave old world." These four months represent a unique time in the economic history surrounding the financial crisis. it was a unique time in and of itself in that we were neither rising...(read more)

Posted: Fri, 05 Feb 2010 22:16:00 GMT

Home Sellers Still See Conditions as Unfavorable. Perspective on Shadow Inventory

Posted To: MND NewsWire

A consumer survey conducted by Thomas Reuters and the University of Michigan indicates that it is sellers who are holding the housing market at low levels. In survey results released today, approximately 75 percent of homeowners who participated in the survey viewed current home buying conditions as favorable because of attractive home prices and low interest rates. However, nine out of ten of those home owners viewed the conditions for the sale of their own home as unfavorable, not because of lack of buyers, but because of price declines . The survey authors viewed these responses as predicting a long-term drag on the housing market for both economic and psychological reasons. There is, the report said, a significant barrier to purchasing a new home if the potential buyer's current home...(read more)

Posted: Fri, 05 Feb 2010 21:49:00 GMT

MBS AFTERNOON: Massive Stock Rally Leaves Bonds Slightly Weaker

Posted To: MBS Commentary

After reaching as high as 101-20, MBS 4.5's are back down to 101-14. Its seems that layers of support are building at levels that would leave 4.5's at PAR after settlement next week. Far be it from me to suggest there's some sort of external force that continues to push 4.5's toward that 101-00 level, but it LOOKS that way on the chart at least. Meanwhile, stocks had recovered 100% of today's losses, though with the close still 20 minutes away, difficult to say where things will end. As for treasuries, the yield curve is reasonably unchanged on the day save for a little bulge in the belly (5's and 7's leading the pack by 2bps). All told, the stock lever did what we wanted it to do in the case of a stock sell-off today, and as stocks have rallied, little of what we...(read more)

Posted: Fri, 05 Feb 2010 20:40:00 GMT